Analysing 12 years of mini grid results-based financing in Africa

Mini grids are the most cost-effective and scalable solution for electrifying between 380 million and 490 million people in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet as of early 2025, only 14% of the $9.1 billion committed to mini grid electrification across Africa had been disbursed — amounting to just $1.28 billion. This represents a mere 2.1% of the estimated $91–$127 billion required to electrify 380–490 million people by 2030. To help attract the necessary investment, results-based financing (RBF) programmes offer subsidies tied to specific project milestones. The idea is that this de-risks investment for developers and financiers. Since 2013, at least 13 RBF programmes have launched across Africa.

Through extensive consultations with mini grid developers, RBF programmes and funders, we:

1. Examine the landscape of past and present RBF programmes in Africa;
2. Analyse the fundamental challenges that have limited their effectiveness;
3. Provide country-specific context for understanding implementation realities;
4. Compare different approaches to identify what’s working and what’s not; and
5. Offer recommendations for enhancing RBF design and implementation and propose possible alternatives.