This market assessment informed the design of the World Bank’s Horn of Africa Regional Integration for Sustainable Energy Supply (HOA RISES) project, which intends to support the delivery of off-grid, clean cooking, and mini grid solutions to selected pilot areas in the borderland areas of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, with a particular focus on households and public institutions. A core focus of this work was on design recommendations for the HOA RISES’ planned Results Based Financing (RBF) scheme. Key components of this analysis included a mapping of market actors, technologies, and business models followed by respective supply- and demand-side assessments. This was further complemented with a geospatial analysis utilising our in-house developed geospatial platform, VIDA (now spun off from TFE).
Our outputs supplied to the World Bank outline significant challenges due to the unique socio-economic and environmental conditions of the region. They reveal that over 60% of households’ energy needs are underserved, and many served households experience regular outages. The region’s population shows a considerable willingness and ability to pay for energy and cooking technologies, with about 60% able to afford at least a basic solar lantern. However, affordability remains a significant constraint, especially among the most vulnerable groups such as refugees and IDP camps. We suggest a combination of private sector-led and public procurement approaches to supply energy and cooking technologies. We also recommend interventions to upgrade and expand mini grids, with a focus on hybridisation and maintenance to enhance renewable energy penetration and connectivity.
This report is not available in the public domain. If you want to learn more about our work in fragile states, and our work on the structuring of support programmes such as the HOA RISES programme, get in touch!
